"We have been a couple of months, appear that the delay would be expected. Now is the time when the export quota in September last negative," says Thomas Chauvet, a luxury analyst at Citigroup. "The total value of Swiss watches exports rose by 2.7% lower than the same month of the previous year in 2011."
The biggest drop in sales came from China, what., Down 28%, followed by a 20% decline in sales in Hong Kong compared to the same month last year The decline reflects the economic slowdown in China, and the fact that the Chinese buyers spend in the same way they once were.
Main concerns remain, such as the early signs of decline reflects destocking. Some Hong Kong-listed companies see 'shares have fallen almost 50% from their recent peaks. As the largest export market for Swiss replica watches, has about 21% of total global shipments, Hong Kong saw fewer Chinese buyers visit this year to give to buy luxury watches, as a gift, partly as a result of the sharp decline in activity in the mainland .
Figures for Greater China (China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) are very sobering, with a 22% year on year decline in sales in September compared to the 17% growth in the first eight months of this year. "The question remains, how long will the results last? It could last 14 months and in the Swiss watch industry downturn 2008-09, or as long as 19 months in 2001-03," said Chauvet.
According correlated Citi research, changes in demand in the luxury directly on the macro-economic environment and the health of the consumer habits. Any significant change in the external political and economic environment which may affect consumer confidence, is a risk for the sales results. Swiss watch exports forecast to remain negative for a few months in a row.
However, Swatch Group AG, the Swiss manufacturer, which owns 19 brands in all price ranges, not the recent decline as a cause for concern, as sales increased for more than 30 months.
According to a report by HSBC on Consumer Brands & Retail in Global Luxury Goods must Swatch Group's performance in 2012 are supported by Omega and other brands with affordable prices, such as Tissot and Longines, as it marks usually volume-led.
The report estimates that up to two thirds of consumers buying luxury goods in China are new to the brands they buy, and the proportion of customers in a "new" category is greater in the lower price segment (Rado, Mido, Longines and Tissot) than for the higher-priced brands as Omega. HSBC also shows that consumers can afford higher prices are more widely traveled and exposed to negative headlines burden mood which to voice their concerns. As a result, they said, they would be more inclined to a EUR 10,000 (400,000 baht) to acquire up to a better environmental performance.
However, the Swiss watchmakers are optimistic rebound of China and are of the opinion that the demand for luxury goods recover. A report by the consulting firm Bain & Co., predicted that the sales of all luxury goods would increase by 18% by the end of this year, while sales of luxury best replica watches would grow at a rate of about 14%. Analysts remain optimistic that the current recession is a glitch, and not lead to a turning point in the market.
Cortina Watch, an established player in the luxury watch industry with 20 stores in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Taiwan, also remain positive about the industry in Asia in the coming months.
In Thailand, the company plans to expand a number of new markets, according to Krist Chatikaratana, director of Cortina Watch Thailand.
"Despite the recent decline in some countries, this year a great year for Cortina was watching Thailand. We have experienced double-digit growth, and most of our customers do not seem to slow their purchases," said Krist said.
The biggest challenge is in fact a sufficient number of good pieces here customer requirements. "Many customers prefer to choose to wait for their dream piece as [buy] other watches that we have in stock," he said.
"Thai customers are well informed and are becoming more sophisticated when it comes to a purchase point. Often seek an extensive amount of information before. Decision, both positive and a challenge for us"
Luxury brands have enjoyed a great success in Asia and particularly in China in recent years, but cover the way in which the Chinese consumers are being developed and the change in public opinion, suggests that the future may not be as smooth as it used is.
Increasing complexity and Overseas Chinese consumers shopping for challenges for mega brands raises questions about risk concentrations and reviews for those sectors with strong dependence on wealthy Chinese consumers.
It is important to note that other markets may grow faster than China are temporarily on display in percent, but in terms of growth, in absolute terms, not many are now on the way from China.
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